Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to visit India for the first time in seven years as he attends the 18th BRICS Summit in New Delhi on September 12 and 13. His brief, roughly 24-hour visit is attracting considerable diplomatic attention, with a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi expected to focus on some of the most sensitive issues in the India-China relationship, particularly trade, border stability and the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

Xi’s visit comes at a significant moment for bilateral relations. India and China have been attempting to gradually stabilize ties following years of tensions after the 2020 Galwan Valley clash. While diplomatic and military engagement has increased in recent months, several strategic and economic concerns remain unresolved.

The upcoming Modi-Xi meeting is therefore being closely watched for signs of whether the two countries can move from cautious engagement towards a more substantive normalization of relations.

First India visit in seven years

Xi Jinping’s last visit to India was in 2019, when he travelled to Chennai for the informal second Modi-Xi summit. Since then, relations between the two Asian powers have been dominated by border tensions and military deployments along the LAC.

China has now officially confirmed Xi’s participation in the BRICS summit at the invitation of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The visit represents the highest-level India-China diplomatic engagement in several years and provides the two leaders with an opportunity to discuss bilateral concerns directly.

The timing is also important because India is hosting BRICS at a time of considerable geopolitical uncertainty. The summit is expected to bring together several major leaders and focus on multilateralism, global governance and economic cooperation.

Trade likely to be a major issue between Modi-XI meet

One of the key subjects expected to feature in the Modi-Xi discussion is bilateral trade.

India and China have a large but heavily imbalanced economic relationship. China remains an important source of machinery, electronics, industrial components, chemicals and other manufactured goods for the Indian market. At the same time, India has repeatedly raised concerns about market access for Indian products and the persistent trade deficit.

The two governments have recently shown interest in improving economic engagement while keeping strategic concerns separate. A possible discussion between Modi and Xi could therefore examine ways to increase trade, improve market access and reduce barriers affecting Indian exporters.

For India, the challenge will be to expand economic cooperation without allowing excessive dependence on Chinese supply chains in strategically important sectors.

For Beijing, improved economic relations with India could provide stability at a time when global trade is increasingly fragmented by geopolitical tensions.

Border peace remains central

Despite efforts to stabilize relations, the border issue remains the most sensitive component of the India-China relationship.

India has consistently maintained that peace and tranquillity along the border are essential for the broader relationship to progress. Recent military-level engagement indicates that both sides are seeking mechanisms to prevent misunderstandings and manage tensions along the frontier.

Earlier this week, India and China held their first Senior Highest Military Commander-Level Flag Meeting in the Arunachal Pradesh sector. The talks were seen as part of efforts to strengthen military communication and reduce the possibility of escalation along the eastern frontier.

The development could provide useful background for the Modi-Xi meeting. The two leaders may discuss the importance of maintaining stability along the LAC and ensuring that military tensions do not derail the broader diplomatic relationship.

From Galwan to cautious rapprochement

The relationship between Modi and Xi has undergone a major transformation since the Galwan clash of 2020.

The deadly confrontation resulted in casualties on both sides and triggered a prolonged military standoff. India subsequently increased its military preparedness along the northern border, while diplomatic relations entered a difficult phase.

In recent months, however, there have been signs of cautious rapprochement. Modi and Xi had a brief interaction at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit earlier this month, an encounter that was viewed as another indication that both sides were gradually rebuilding political communication.

Xi’s short schedule adds significance

Xi’s visit is expected to last only around 24 hours. Despite its short duration, the visit has generated significant diplomatic interest because of the possibility of direct discussions between Modi and Xi.

According to diplomatic sources, the bilateral meeting is scheduled for Saturday evening. It is expected to take place between the BRICS closed session on multilateralism and the dinner hosted by Modi for participating leaders. Xi is also expected to attend the dinner.

The compressed schedule means that the meeting will need to address several issues efficiently, with both sides likely to focus on subjects that directly affect the future trajectory of bilateral relations.

BRICS provides a wider diplomatic setting

Xi’s India visit is taking place primarily in the context of the BRICS summit. The summit itself is expected to focus on strengthening multilateralism and promoting a more representative global governance system.

The opening discussions will include a closed session titled “Inclusive Global Governance and Strengthening Multilateralism.” India is hosting the summit at a time when international politics is being reshaped by conflicts, trade disputes and competing geopolitical blocs.

This broader setting could provide Modi and Xi with an opportunity to discuss not only bilateral concerns but also global issues where Indian and Chinese positions may overlap or differ.

A delicate balancing act for India

For New Delhi, the Modi-Xi meeting presents a delicate diplomatic balancing act.

India wants to stabilize relations with China, particularly along the border, while simultaneously protecting its strategic interests. It also wants greater economic opportunities without allowing trade dependence to create vulnerabilities.

The meeting could therefore be less about announcing dramatic breakthroughs and more about establishing practical mechanisms for managing disagreements.

For China, improving relations with India could help reduce tensions along its western and southern strategic periphery and create greater space for economic cooperation.

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What to watch after the meeting

The most important indicator of the meeting’s success may not be a single announcement but the concrete steps that follow.

Progress on military communication, border management, trade and market access would provide evidence that the relationship is moving towards greater stability. Conversely, continued disputes over the LAC or economic restrictions could limit the pace of normalization.

The fact that both governments are again investing political capital in high-level engagement, however, suggests that neither side wants bilateral relations to remain permanently trapped in the post-Galwan phase.

Conclusion

Xi Jinping’s 24-hour India visit marks a significant moment in the gradual attempt to stabilize India-China relations. His bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to put trade and border stability at the centre of discussions, while the BRICS summit will provide a wider platform for addressing global governance and multilateral cooperation.

Seven years after Xi’s previous India visit, the political message of his return is important in itself. But the real test will be whether the Modi-Xi engagement can translate into sustained progress on the LAC, stronger economic cooperation and a more predictable relationship between Asia’s two major powers.

For now, the meeting represents an opportunity for both leaders to put guardrails around their differences while exploring areas where cooperation remains possible.