Exit Poll Results 2026: A State-by-State Breakdown of India’s High-Stakes Assembly Elections

Exit Poll Results 2026: As voting concludes across five states and one union territory, exit poll projections paint a dramatic picture—from a potential BJP surge in West Bengal to a Bollywood-turned-politics sensation in Tamil Nadu.

West Bengal’s political fight is really a two-horse contest—with the incumbent Trinamool Congress (TMC) led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee against a revived Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The unofficial “Poll of Polls” average for the 294-seat West Bengal Assembly suggests a significant shift, and the BJP is expected to win the 155 seats that are more than the critical mass mark of 148 seats, in the very first instance ever in an election period.

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Some pollsters are not in agreement. Although the Bengal election is mostly one of bipolarity with two parties, the TMC along with the BJP, the residual votes of the Left Front-Congress alliance is a crucial aspect. An analysis of Election Commission data reveals that the alliance’s share of votes surpassed the margin of victory in 117 constituencies, which is nearly 40 percent of the Assembly during the 2021 election.

The turnout of voters was astonishing: Election commission statistics reveal the staggering 91.57 percent of the voters who voted in the second round in the West Bengal Assembly elections. It was a remarkable turnout. 

The TMC has denied the results of the exit poll and cited the pollsters’ poor track record in the state for the 2021 elections in 2021.

The Tamil Nadu assembly election of 234 seats was predicted to be a straight race against those who are part of the DMK alliance as well as the AIADMK. But actor-turned-politician Vijay and his party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), have dramatically complicated the narrative.

Multiple exit polls suggest a leading position for the DMK, a second place for the AIADMK, and a significant debut of the actor TVK as a third force. The polls favoring DMK have predicted anything from 130 to 160 seats for DMK as well as its allied parties, out of 234 seats. A number of polls suggest that AIADMK, as well as its allies, could get 50 to 100 seats.

One pollster stands out from the others. Axis My India has said that actor Vijay’s TVK could secure up to 120 seats and be the next MGR, which could lead to a complete fall of AIADMK.

The evidence behind the prediction is striking. Vijay’s TVK has gained traction across communities, winning 42% of the SCs, and 47% of the STs, and 36% of the OBC/MBC voters. Alongside that, there are 25% of Muslims, and 31% of Christians, and 20 percent among Brahmins, which indicates the existence of diverse but diversified support.

Many other agencies are more cautious. According to the majority of polls, TVK is expected to be able to win anywhere between 13 to 26 seats, emerging as a third party but not a ruling one. The exit poll of P-Marq, for instance, estimated a DMK-led alliance to win between 125 and 145 seats, AIADMK at 65-85 seats, and TVK with 16-26 seats. The Minute News Minute.

Read Also: West Bengal Election 2026 Prediction: Tight Fight or Clear Winner? Ground Trends Indicate High-Stakes Battle 

The political pendulum in Kerala is swaying towards a Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF). Research like Axis My India and Matrize shows the UDF in the lead, and estimates range between 70 and 90 seats. The ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) is predicted to be in the minority in the end, with polls showing it to be somewhere between 49 and 69 seats.

The Manorama News-C Voter exit poll is one of the most precise pictures, forecasting UDF at 82-94 seats and LDF at 44-56, based upon an opinion poll of 28,848 voters, which was conducted between April 9 and 24.

The gains of the UDF are widely reported. In Kozhikode, the UDF is believed to have 9-11 seats, in stark contrast to 2021, which saw the UDF left with two seats, whereas the LDF took 11 seats.

In Assam, exit polls suggest an historic hat trick by the BJP under Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. The exit poll by Matrize projects the BJP with 85-95 seats in Assam, and the Congress is predicted to win between 25 and 32 seats. Regarding the percentage of votes, the BJP is pegged at 45.5 percent, while the Congress is at 39.8 percent.

If this is confirmed, it would result in Assam among the BJP’s biggest bases within the Northeast.

In the Union Territory of Puducherry, the situation is more uncontested. Major exit polls have predicted the possibility of an NDA victory, indicating an uncontested victory for the coalition in the assembly of 30 seats.

• West Bengal is the most uncertain battleground with a skewed verdict from pollsters, with some giving the BJP the majority and with others forecasting the possibility of a TMC sweep.
• Tamil Nadu has the most dramatic wildcard. Axis MyIndia’s projection of TVK winning 120 seats is among the top dramatic elections of Indian history.
• Kerala is expected to bring the Congress-controlled UDF back to the helm after 10 years, ending the current tenure of the LDF.
• Assam has been headed towards a third consecutive victory for the BJP, which signals that the party is consolidating its Northeast base.
• Puducherry can be described as the simplest result and has near-unanimous NDA projections.

The outcomes will officially be announced on May 4, 2026.